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Defend, attribute, punish deterring cyber warfare in the age of AI

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Overview

In a special report produced by Foreign Policy Analytics with financial support from Microsoft, researchers examine cyber deterrence strategies for NATO in the age of AI, bringing sharpened focus on the risks of, and responses to, hybrid warfare.

Focusing on the most destructive cyberattacks, the analysis identifies critical deterrence gaps and presents cross-sectoral recommendations to deterrence stakeholders including member states and private industry.

To read the full Digital Front Lines report, which seeks to identify opportunities for collaboration across government, industry, and civil society to mitigate the destructive impacts of hybrid warfare, please visit: Digital Front Lines

AI offers new capabilities to both attackers and defenders in cyberspace

Cyber attackers are increasingly finding new ways to apply AI to enhance the scale, sophistication, and anonymity of their operations while reducing associated costs. Defenders, meanwhile, have recognized AI as a crucial asset that will require deepening public-private, civil-military, and allied nation collaboration.

Get details from the joint 2023 Microsoft and OpenAI research study outlining how five known nation state actors were using large language models (LLMs) to enhance their operations.

Achieving holistic cyber resilience still depends on the fundamentals

While AI-powered cybersecurity can help level the technological playing field, effective deterrence will require changes in the security culture of employers as well as hardware and software that puts as little burden on end users as possible. States and allies can leverage rehearsals, hackathons, red-teaming exercises, and other initiatives to develop coordinated response strategies. The implementation of NATO’s 2023 Vilnius summit Virtual Cyber Incident Support Capability (VCISC) commitment is also discussed.

Imposing meaningful consequences on cyber attackers requires developing proportional retaliation options

Effective cyber deterrence requires coupling resilience and attribution with credible punishments for cyber attackers. One avenue for accountability is international law, but ongoing legal questions and enforcement challenges remain. Other punitive measures range from diplomatic denouncements and sanctions, to kinetic military strikes and retaliation in the cyber realm, but all punishment strategies will need to overcome serious risks and obstacles.

Looking ahead: Effective cyber resilience in the age of AI

AI has the potential to lower the costs and increase the effectiveness of cyberattacks, but also to lower the cost and effort of cybersecurity measures. In this segment, five key ways NATO can strengthen cyber deterrence are discussed.

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